From root: How can I trust the actions I take in simulations?

Which simulation should I use to take an action?

Cover these topics: - Bayesian model selection applied to action-taking is the same as doing causal inference

References and further reading

Hardwick, Robert J. 2025. “How do I choose between simulation structures?” umbralcalculations, December. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/how_do_i_choose_between_simulation_structures.html.
Hardwick, Robert J. 2026a. “How can I trust the actions I take in simulations?” umbralcalculations, August. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/how_can_i_trust_the_actions_i_take_in_simulations.html.
Hardwick, Robert J. 2026b. “How sensitive is my action to the simulation?” umbralcalculations, August. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/how_sensitive_is_my_action_to_the_simulation.html.
Kass, Robert E., and Adrian E. Raftery. 1995. “Bayes Factors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 (430): 773–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572.
Pearl, Judea. 2009. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press.