https://umbralcalc.github.io/ Visual explorations in science and computation. en Sun, 17 May 2026 14:47:19 +0000 Sat, 16 May 2026 17:59:29 +0100 https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/acting_on_simulated_systems_introduction.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/acting_on_simulated_systems_introduction.html Sat, 16 May 2026 17:59:29 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems This is a collection of simulated examples of real-world actions explored through interactive dashboards. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulating_real_world_systems_as_a_programmer_introduction.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulating_real_world_systems_as_a_programmer_introduction.html Sat, 16 May 2026 17:59:29 +0100 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer This is a collection of posts aimed at programmers and non-technical readers wanting to learn the fundamentals of simulation technology and how it can be useful to the world. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/managing_antimicrobial_resistance_with_hospital_guidelines.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/managing_antimicrobial_resistance_with_hospital_guidelines.html Tue, 12 May 2026 08:38:31 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems Antibiotic-resistant infections are rising in English hospitals: can stewardship policies bring them back down, and how much room is there to do so? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/managing_flood_damage_risk_under_climate_change.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/managing_flood_damage_risk_under_climate_change.html Tue, 12 May 2026 08:38:31 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems Climate change is making UK flooding worse: how much can natural flood management interventions offset that risk, and is more spending always better? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/energy_demand_response_optimisation_for_the_national_grid.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/energy_demand_response_optimisation_for_the_national_grid.html Tue, 12 May 2026 08:38:31 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems Grid-scale batteries promise to balance the intermittent renewables of a net-zero electricity system: but how should they be dispatched, and does the answer change as the grid gets greener? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/support_policies_for_small_business_survival.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/support_policies_for_small_business_survival.html Tue, 12 May 2026 08:38:31 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems UK small business support comes in different flavours (rates relief, startup grants, incubators, mentoring, etc.): how should a cash-constrained policymaker has to choose between them? To maximise what? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/evaluating_rugby_manager_decision_making.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/evaluating_rugby_manager_decision_making.html Mon, 11 May 2026 22:17:59 +0100 Acting on Simulated Systems A rugby manager picks when to substitute each position group: bring on the front-row replacements early, or save them for the closing minutes? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulating_real_world_systems.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulating_real_world_systems.html Sun, 10 May 2026 19:04:21 +0100 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer We started this collection of posts with a question: why simulate real-world systems at all? https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulation_architectures_on_different_hardware.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/simulation_architectures_on_different_hardware.html Sun, 10 May 2026 10:14:28 +0100 Loose Threads When we talk about 'classical' hardware here, we just mean standard CPUs. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/learning_simulations_of_the_real_world.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/learning_simulations_of_the_real_world.html Sun, 21 Dec 2025 12:40:52 +0000 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer Unlike machine learning models, which typically come with standard training algorithms (like backpropagation for neural networks), simulations often need us to explicitly choose and design procedures for learning their parameters from real-world data or optimising their outputs. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/black_box_ai_is_an_accelerator_paradigm.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/black_box_ai_is_an_accelerator_paradigm.html Mon, 01 Dec 2025 09:24:35 +0000 Loose Threads Here are some opinions on the realistic potential for 'black box' AI methods to improve human prediction and decision-making processes. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/mathematical_symbols_vs_diagrams.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/mathematical_symbols_vs_diagrams.html Wed, 26 Nov 2025 08:37:23 +0000 Loose Threads Mathematical concepts and tools are absolutely essential to understanding and deriving deeper relationships when analysing systems in the real world. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/why_simulate_real_world_systems.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/why_simulate_real_world_systems.html Fri, 21 Nov 2025 18:44:32 +0000 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer One of the most compelling uses for simulations of real-world systems is in powering decision-making technologies. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/the_building_blocks_of_simulations.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/the_building_blocks_of_simulations.html Fri, 21 Nov 2025 18:44:32 +0000 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer Time is probably the most important variable to track in a simulation. This is because everything that happens within a simulation only has meaning with respect to the real world if we can trace what point in simulated time that it happened. https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/probabilistic_thinking_for_simulations.html https://umbralcalc.github.io/posts/probabilistic_thinking_for_simulations.html Fri, 21 Nov 2025 18:44:32 +0000 Simulating Real-World Systems as a Programmer The 'trajectory' of a simulation is the sequence of possible state values that its partitions actually take during a specific simulation run.