Acting on Simulated Systems cover

A collection of simulated examples of real-world actions explored through interactive dashboards. Each post covers a specific real-world decision problem in turn, demonstrating how simulations can inform real-world action-taking with illustrative (not production-ready) research models. No maths; just diagrams and straightforward descriptions all the way through.

Collection

Acting on Simulated Systems

    Managing flood damage risk under climate change

    Climate change is making UK flooding worse: how much can natural flood management interventions offset that risk, and is more spending always better?

    The simulation below is calibrated to 16 years of Environment Agency data from the Upper Calder Valley, modelling how rainfall and catchment dynamics translate into peak river flows under different policies and climate scenarios.

    Pick an NFM portfolio and a climate scenario, and watch how peak flows and intervention cost-effectiveness shift.

    Catchment flood policy support: pick a portfolio of natural flood management interventions and a climate scenario; the simulator (calibrated to Environment Agency data from the Upper Calder Valley) shows peak flow distributions over a 25-member ensemble of 5-year stochastic runs. This is a research model fitted to surveillance data, not a flood-risk planning tool.

    Simulation

     

     

    Live controls
    NFM portfolio
    Climate scenario

    Loading…

    The link to this project can be found here.

    Data and licence: This simulation is calibrated to river-flow and rainfall records from the Environment Agency Hydrology and Flood Monitoring APIs, with peak-flow data from the NRFA and climate projections from UKCP18. Environment Agency data contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.