Acting on Simulated Systems cover

A collection of simulated examples of real-world actions explored through interactive dashboards. Each post covers a specific real-world decision problem in turn, demonstrating how simulations can inform real-world action-taking with illustrative (not production-ready) research models. No maths; just diagrams and straightforward descriptions all the way through.

Collection

Acting on Simulated Systems

    Managing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) with hospital guidelines

    Antibiotic-resistant infections are rising in English hospitals: can stewardship policies bring them back down, and how much room is there to do so?

    The simulation below is fitted to ten years of UKHSA surveillance data and models how cephalosporin prescribing pressure shapes the balance of susceptible and resistant E. coli inside a hospital, generating bloodstream infections as a stochastic consequence.

    Pick a prescribing policy and watch how the resistance ratio and resistant infection burden evolve over time.

    Hospital prescribing policy support: pick a stewardship strategy and policy parameters; the simulator (fitted to UKHSA surveillance data) shows the resulting resistance ratio and the cumulative burden of resistant bloodstream infections over 50 years. This is a research model fitted to surveillance data, not a clinical decision aid.

    Simulation

    Resistance ratio over time (auto-scaled)

    Cumulative resistant BSI over 50 years

    Comparison: your policy (magenta) vs the four reference policies (grey)

     

     

    Live controls
    Prescribing policy

    Baseline uses a constant prescribing rate — no extra parameters to tune.

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    The link to this project can be found here.

    Data and licence: This simulation is fitted to AMR surveillance indicators from UKHSA Fingertips (with supporting data from OpenPrescribing.net, the ECDC Surveillance Atlas, and ESPAUR reports). UKHSA Fingertips data is Crown copyright and contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.