Acting on Simulated Systems cover

A collection of simulated examples of real-world actions explored through interactive dashboards. Each post covers a specific real-world decision problem in turn, demonstrating how simulations can inform real-world action-taking with illustrative (not production-ready) research models. No maths; just diagrams and straightforward descriptions all the way through.

Collection

Acting on Simulated Systems

    Evaluating rugby manager decision-making

    A rugby manager picks when to substitute each position group: bring on the front-row replacements early, or save them for the closing minutes?

    The simulation below is fitted to thousands of real match events and treats every minute of a match as a model that learns the rate at which scoring events happen, minute by minute whose intensity depends on which players are on the pitch and how long they have been there.

    Drag the substitution-timing sliders for each position group and watch how the predicted win probability shifts.

    Rugby manager decision support: pick when each home position group comes off the pitch; the simulator (fitted to thousands of real match events) shows how the win-margin distribution shifts. This is a research model fitted to match events, not a rugby manager decision tool.

    Simulation

    Score margin (home − away) for the in-progress match

    −50−250+25+50

    Win-margin distribution across completed matches

     

     

    Live controls

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    The link to this project can be found here.

    Data and licence: This is an entirely non-commercial research and learning model, built purely to demonstrate that a simulation can be fit to realistic match-event data. None of the underlying data is redistributed here; the dashboard ships only the fitted model coefficients, not any match records or source data. Unlike the other dashboards in this series there is no open-data licence to cite.